The price of wheat is moving in a positive direction during this period, amid doubts about the harvests in Russia and Australia. Thus, hedge funds on the international stock markets have moved from betting on price drops to betting on price increases, which is starting to be seen in the physical market as well.
At the level of the Port of Constanța, wheat is sold today for 208 euros/ton, but there is room for even better, experts say. Cezar Gheorghe, an expert in agricultural commodity markets, urges farmers to be cautious in signing contracts in this period, because there is still room for increases in the next period, especially taking into account the fact that a hot summer is coming.
“In the south of Russia it hasn’t rained since the beginning of April and they have big problems. They already have problems with frost and about 250,000 hectares are affected. All funds on the Chicago Board of Trade and Euronext moved from short positions, i.e. bets on falling prices, to long positions, i.e. bets on price increases.
In the physical market, this did not translate 100%. Today, the Port of Constanța displays an indication of around 208 euros/tonne for wheat, which means a variation of minus 32 euros compared to the September 2024 quote. Why this huge difference? For the simple fact that destinations are not yet awake, have not realized the impact and are not yet willing to pay this price.
I still recommend caution with wheat, because we have a season in which all appearances lead to infernal heat in the northern hemisphere. If Russia deepens its drought condition, we may see volume declines there, which will contribute to an increase in the price indication for wheat. However, 208 euros is not such a bad level for 1-1.5 tons/hectare, in the idea that we can level on an average price throughout the year”, explained Cezar Gheorghe for AGRO TV, in the show “Agriculture in the Report”.
For the entire analysis related to the grain market, watch the full edition of the show “Agriculture la Raport”, produced by Ovidiu Ghinea:
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