After securing a double-digit Game 4 win behind a franchise-best 22-for-43 shooting night from behind the arc, the Indiana Pacers will look to close out this first-round playoff series against the Bucks Tuesday night in Milwaukee.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo lurking in the shadows, potentially nearing a return in this series, the Pacers will want to put away the Bucks before they potentially have to deal with him.
Damian Lillard will also be sidelined in Game 5 with an Achilles injury. This leaves Milwaukee exposed to a potential first-round upset for the second time in two years.
Can the Bucks avoid elimination and buy Lillard and Giannis some time, or will the Pacers slam the door shut and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals?
Let’s break it down and make a pick.
Pacers vs. Bucks odds
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Spread: Pacers -4 (-114), Bucks +4 (-106)
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Money line: Pacers -184, Bucks +154
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Total: o216 (-110), u216 (-110)
Odds via FanDuel
Pacers vs. Bucks prediction: Analysis
(9:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV)
Indiana split the first two road games of the series with the Bucks, losing Game 1 by double digits before rallying with a 17-point Game 2 win behind an offensive masterclass from Pascal Siakam.
With Lillard and Giannis sidelined, Indiana smells blood.
The Pacers are not likely to set another franchise record for made 3s in a playoff game, but they will play up-tempo and push the pace, knowing that the Bucks simply cannot keep up with them offensively.
The bottom line is Milwaukee does not have the offensive firepower to compete with the Pacers. Without Antetokounmpo dominating the paint and Lillard’s limitless range from deep, Indiana will not be stretched defensively.
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Patrick Beverley’s offensive creation is not exactly frightening, and Milwaukee does not have any true point guards to back him up in case of foul trouble.
Additionally, Indiana likes to pressure the ball when it comes across halfcourt, and we will see a ton of that in Game 5, with the Pacers wreaking havoc and not letting Milwaukee get into its sets.
I also like the matchups of Aaron Nesmith on Khris Middleton and Andrew Nembhard on Beverley.
Nembhard got his hand caught in the proverbial cookie jar a few times while defending Lillard tight around the perimeter; he fouled Lillard on several 3-point attempts, but his lateral quickness could cause Beverley trouble, especially in the half-court. And Beverley isn’t going to get the same calls Lillard gets.
Furthermore, the Pacers have already proven they can not only win but also dominate the Bucks on their home floor.
With the road confidence they have from Game 2, expect Indiana to run away with this one at Fiserv Forum.
Pacers vs. Bucks prediction: Analysis
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Pick: Pacers -4 (-115 at DraftKings)
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