The long-awaited and unnecessarily controversial approval of US aid to Ukraine is a major milestone in the current context, says Eugene Rumer, former Russia and Eurasian intelligence officer at the US National Intelligence Council, senior fellow and director of the Program Carnegie Russia and Eurasia. But, he wonders, is it a milestone on the way to what?
This money is desperately needed to keep the Ukrainian military fighting, to protect Ukraine’s people and infrastructure from Russian airstrikes, and to destroy Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
“But a lot happened in the eight months it took Congress to act”recalls Eugene Rumer in his analysis.
“The key question that needs an answer now is this: What are Ukraine’s war aims and strategy to achieve them? As serious doubts are raised about the viability of Kiev’s current strategy, Ukraine and – just as importantly – its allies on both sides of the Atlantic must address this dilemma.
The dynamics of war and the prevailing discourse about it have changed dramatically.
Eight months ago, the Ukrainian counteroffensive was still underway. The counteroffensive was the embodiment of a theory of victory that called for breaking through Russian defenses, severing Crimea from the land bridge that Russia had seized earlier in the war, and forcing Moscow to negotiate an end to the war on terms favorable to Kiev.
Until the word “stalemate” was brought into public discussion by none other than Ukraine’s vaunted ex-military commander Valeri Zalujnyi, the use of the term was often treated as a sign of unwarranted pessimism, defeatism, or even a parroting of Russian propaganda”, notes Eugene Rumer in an editorial-analysis published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Moscow is now using better tactics and using some of its hardware more effectively”
Despite an obvious disappointment, writes Eugene Rumer, the Ukrainian counter-offensive nevertheless offers some important lessons.
“First, size matters. Military planners have long believed that successful offensive operations require significant manpower and materiel advantages of the order of three to one or even greater, especially when the defender is prepared and dug in, as was the case in the summer of 2023.
It is now abundantly clear that the size of Russia’s population, economy, stockpiles of military hardware, and defense industrial base far exceeds that of Ukraine, even when supported by the United States, Europe, and other allies and partners.
Eugene Rumer
Second, the Russian military defied expectations by adopting new tactics and deploying new equipment. Considered powerless in the early stages of the war, when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s generals bet that the Ukrainians would greet them as liberators, Russian forces have rebounded.
While the United States and its allies may be dismayed by Russia’s traditional disdain for battlefield losses, they must admit that Moscow is now using better tactics and uses some of its hardware more efficiently. Last summer, Russia moved ahead of Ukraine in crucial areas such as drones and electronic warfare.
The Russian defense industry is also performing quite impressively, despite technological attrition. It far outstripped Western production of critical items such as artillery ammunition, benefited from timely help from friends in Iran and North Korea, and found ways to modernize and repurpose old weapons for new uses“, warns Eugene Rumer.
And China gave Russia a helping hand. It has facilitated alternative supply chains and provided replacements for Western machinery and other components that the Russian defense industry needs to operate around the clock.
Eugene Rumer
“Ukraine has no good options, even with the latest aid package”
Faced with this grim reality, Eugene Rumer continued, Ukraine switched to an “active defense” strategy – building fortifications and giving his troops the chance to reconstitute, recuperate and retrain as he engages in a series of major strikes inside Russia and attacks on Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet.
But this “active defense” strategy, Rumer points out, requires massive infusions of Western aid and support.
“Equally important, an influx of new recruits is needed following the passage of a law expanding the pool of eligible recruits.
Occasional deep strikes on Russian targets generate publicity and boost morale, as do Ukrainian attacks against Russian ships in the Black Sea. But these successes have little effect on the situation on the battlefield, where Russian troops, despite heavy losses, are slowly gaining ground.
The rest of 2024, with new US aid flowing to Ukraine, should be a rebuilding year to prepare for offensive operations in 2025, according to some observers.
That plan seems extremely optimistic. The task of rebuilding the Ukrainian army units, which have already been through years of continuous fighting and heavy losses, will take time, especially since they are fighting a campaign against a ruthless enemy. The same will be true of the recruitment, training and integration of new recruits into existing units or the formation of entirely new units.
Ukraine has no good options, even with the latest aid package. Many military analysts have already come to this conclusion in private, but are reluctant to express their sentiment, reluctant to add to the prevailing bleak narrative and face accusations of defeatism.
Eugene Rumer – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western backers are loathe, at least for now, to admit publicly that the Ukrainian military is unlikely to be able to launch another large-scale counteroffensive in 2025“, writes Eugene Rumer.
“Ukraine’s need for aid, even with the adoption of a long-term defensive strategy, is unlimited”
Ukraine is waging a war against an enemy that shows no inclination to stop its aggression in the face of future peace negotiations.
“Having staked his entire presidency on this war, Putin is in no mood to give up. Ukraine’s need for aid, even with the adoption of a long-term defensive strategy, is unlimited. Are Washington and Brussels ready for this? This is the key question for the upcoming NATO summit in Washington.
Instead of discussing Ukraine’s path to NATO membership, allies should implement a series of concrete commitments, including more and better capabilities to defend and repel Russian attack and long-range precision strike weapons long range, to continue and expand strikes deep inside Putin’s Russia.
Such offensive capabilities will position Ukraine better and a long-term strategy could be implemented which combines defense with offense / deterrence and which causes increasingly costly consequences for the Kremlin.
Support for Ukraine is the most important piece of the strategy to isolate the West from Russia in the new cold war. The Washington summit will answer if the West meets this challenge“, concludes Eugene Rumer.
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