Iowa State vs. Illinois expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 matchup

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Containing Illinois and the nation’s No. 1 offense is a difficult task. During the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the Fighting Illini blitzed Morehead State and Duquesne. Iowa State’s No. 1 defense in the country (per KenPom) presents a formidable challenge. The No. 2 seed Cyclones are small favorites over the No. 3 seed Fighting Illini in this Thursday night East Regional matchup in Boston.

To reach the second weekend, Iowa State relied on its strengths. Second in the nation in defensive turnover percentage and third in steal percentage, the blueprint for the Cyclones involves creating extra possessions. Eight second-half turnovers helped Iowa State take over a close game from Washington State in the second round. Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert form a dynamic and experienced backcourt that causes chaos all over the floor. They also maintain the Cyclones’ capable offense, which ranks 49th in the country on KenPom. At their best, the Cyclones actively share the ball and multiple players score in double figures. It’s not uncommon to see six or seven players chip in for an Iowa State offense that is 32nd in assists to made field goals.

Forcing opponents to keep pace with its fantastic offense is the reason Illinois is in its first Sweet 16 since 2005. Not many teams proved capable of hanging the 84 points that the Illinois offense averaged this season — the Illini scored above that mark in each of their first two tournament wins. Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. averaged 28 points per game in that stretch and senior guard Marcus Domask (a Southern Illinois transfer) has already put together a triple-double and a 20-point game. In the frontcourt, senior Coleman Hawkins and big man Dain Dainja provide consistent interior production.

Turnovers and extra possessions could make the difference. The Cyclones are elite at creating turnovers and Illinois is 360th in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Intensity has picked up for the Illinois defense so far this postseason in comfortable double-digit wins.

Winning the rebounding battle could also be a key to victory. A bigger Illinois rotation is 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, while Iowa State is 196th in keeping opponents away from the offensive glass.