“Putin Did Not Order Aleksei Navalnyi To Be Killed,” American Intelligence Agencies Believe | WSJ

The US intelligence agencies’ assessment, according to WSJ sources, is based on both classified information and an analysis of publicly known facts, including the timing of Navalny’s death and the consequences for Vladimir Putin’s election campaign.

The WSJ writes that American intelligence agencies have passed their findings to their European colleagues. According to the newspaper’s interlocutors, some European countries were skeptical about this information. Navalny’s ally, Leonid Volkov, considered the US intelligence version implausible.

The February death of Alexei Navalny in an Arctic prison colony prompted a new wave of sanctions targeting Russia’s economy, upended delicate prisoner exchange negotiations between Russia and the West and left Russia’s already limited opposition in disarray.

US intelligence agencies have determined that Putin likely did not order Navalny to be killed in the prison camp, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that deepens the mystery about the circumstances of his death.

The assessment does not challenge Putin’s culpability for Navalny’s death, but rather finds that he likely did not order it at the time. The theory is widely accepted by the intelligence community and shared by several agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the State Department’s intelligence unit, WSJ interviewees said.

Some countries remain skeptical that Putin was not directly involved in Navalny’s death, according to security officials in several European capitals. In a system as tightly controlled as Putin’s Russia, it is doubtful Navalny could have come to any harm without the president’s advance notice, European officials said.

Those who claim Putin was unaware “clearly don’t understand anything about how he runs modern Russia,” Volkov said. “The idea that Putin was not informed and did not approve the killing of Navalny is ridiculous.”

Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, a Warsaw-based think tank close to the Polish presidency, also questioned the assessment of the US intelligence community. “Navalnyi was a politically valuable prisoner, and everyone knew that Putin was personally involved in his fate. The chances of this type of unintentional death are low,” Debski said.

Russia’s prison service announced on February 16 that Navalny fell unconscious after a walk in the penal colony where he is serving his sentence. The statement said medics arrived to resuscitate him but were unsuccessful and he died.

Just a week before his death, Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had discussed a potential proposal for a prisoner swap that could have freed Navalny, along with Americans held in Russia. They include Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovici and former Marine Paul Whelan.

Instead, the Kremlin wanted Vadim Krasikov, a Russian intelligence agent convicted in Germany of killing a Georgian dissident.

On March 18, Vladimir Putin confirmed that, a few days before the death of Aleksey Navalny, “some colleagues” gave him information about a possible exchange of the opponent for prisoners in Western countries. According to the president, he agreed to the exchange, on the condition that Navalny not return to Russia. And he called his death a sad event.

The Anti-Corruption Foundation, founded by Navalny, said he was killed after Putin learned of the potential prisoner exchange and acted to prevent it. The group’s head of investigations, Maria Pevcih, said the foundation was involved in efforts to secure Navalnî’s release.

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