At the end of the article, ZDI presents a snapshot of the local elections in June this year, based on polls, some of which are not public: who are the favorites and what are their electoral pools. Additional: what factor can decisively influence the results?
The first duel in the history of the post-December elections
The first elections for the mayor of Iași took place in February 1992. The final was between Emil Alexandrescu (FSN) and Mandache Leocov (Democratic Convention), and the former won the position with a difference of over 11,000 votes. At that time there were 226,000 voters, and almost 116,000 valid votes were cast.
Alexandrescu died shortly after the election, and in June, elections were organized again: Constantin Simirad (Democratic Convention – Civic Alliance Party) prevailed over Vasile Dumitriu (independent). The difference between the two was more than 25,000 votes. The results of the 1992 local elections cannot be found online, as the Permanent Electoral Authority (AEP) has not published the data either. ZDI obtained this information from the press of the time, through the County Library “Gh. Asachi”.
The wave of popularity for Simirad reached its peak in 1996. As a candidate from the Civic Alliance, he then obtained almost 100,000 votes – the highest number of votes with which a mayor was elected in Iași since 1992. Simirad’s main opponent was Vasile Burlui (PDSR), but the difference between the two was significant: over 87,000 votes.
First decade of the 2000s: victories only in the second round
In the case of the three rounds of elections in the first decade of the 2000s, a second round was needed each time to determine the winner. The last mandate won by Simirad (Partidul Moldovenilor) was in 2000 against Traian Dobre (PDSR). In the first round, the difference between the two was more than 30,000 votes, and in the second, 16,000 votes – compared to the first round, Simirad had an increase of only 3,000 votes, while Dobre still attracted almost 17,000 votes, but insufficient.
Interim mayor since 2023, with the departure of Simirad, Gheorghe Nichita (PSD) prevailed after two rounds against Dan Cârlan (PD), in 2004. In the first round, Nichita was very close to helping his the mandate, under the conditions in which he lacked only a few thousand votes. On the other side, on the “right” side, Cârlan shared the votes with Relu Fenechiu (PNL), but even by adding up the scores of the two, Nichita’s position would not have been threatened. This was seen in the second round: Nikita won by a margin, with a difference of about 21,000 votes, in the context in which Cârlan doubled his number of votes in the second round compared to the first round.
The first emotions for Gheorghe Nichita were in 2008. In the first round, his main opponent (Dumitru Oprea – PDL) was only 6,100 votes away from the former PSD leader. On the “right” side, Oprea shared the votes with Cristian Adomniței (PNL). Although the latter obtained an unexpectedly small number of votes (9,000), despite an aggressive campaign, it was enough to influence the results. With accusations of sabotage from within his own party (PDL) and with a PNL already approaching PSD (there were public statements by liberal leaders that, even if not directly, showed an affinity for Nichita’s re-election), Oprea lost the electoral competition with a difference of about 8,500 votes.
First election after 2010: USL dominated categorically
The PNL-PSD alliance became official after 2010: the two parties launched the Social-Liberal Union (USL) right in Iasi. With a PDL in adrift (post-economic crisis), Nichita, supported by USL, won the 2012 elections without any right of appeal at a distance of more than 50,000 votes from the main opponent (Tudor Ciuhodaru – Alliance for Iași). In an attempt to preserve some of its town halls in the country (won on the wave of popularity since 2008), the Emil Boc (PDL) government takes a measure that still influences the conduct of elections today: since 2012, the mayors are elected in a single round of voting.
Having become interim mayor in the spring of 2015, Mihai Chirica (PSD) prevailed in 2016 against Marius Bodea (PNL), a duel that will be repeated in the current elections. Even though he obtained the lowest number of votes up to that time for the election of a mayor of Iași (46,000 votes), Chirica won by a landslide, having twice the number of votes compared to Bodea. At that time, the elections were influenced (on the “right” side) by the presence of Andrei Postolache, but even adding up the results of Bodea and Postolache, Chirica would still have won the election without too many emotions.
The year 2020 also brought the lowest number of votes with which a candidate (Mihai Chirica, newly joined PNL) won the City Hall: 36,000 votes. The polling of 4 years ago was influenced by the pandemic, and this was also seen in the turnout – the lowest in the history of elections after 1992 (percentage, only 27%). This time, Chirica prevailed over the USR candidate, Cosette Chichirău, with a difference of 10,000 votes, without there being a strong candidate in the “right” area, the two representing the important parties from this side of the political chessboard. As the post-election analyzes showed, Chichirău did not manage to ride the wave of popularity for USR: in other big cities of the country, USR overturned the calculations of PNL or PSD.
How the voter turnout evolved
One of the unknowns of the current election lies in voter turnout. Although polls have been conducted, local political leaders refuse, when asked, to provide figures on estimated attendance. The last Eurobarometer (published in mid-April) showed a local voting intention of around 60%, but for Iași it seems unlikely: it would mean that more than 180,000 Iași residents would actually come to the polls. Such a presence would open the electoral contest to any outcome.
Between 1992 and 2020, on average, more than 116,000 votes were (validly) cast in the municipality of Iasi. But in the last two elections (2016 and 2020), the number was below 100,000 votes, with a negative record 4 years ago (only 86,000 votes). The most votes were in 1996 (141,000 votes), when it was also the highest electoral score ever obtained by a candidate for the Iași City Hall.
What the polls say about the June election
As a rule, the credibility rate of polls thrown into the market in electoral campaigns is quite low. However, ZDI also consulted internal research of the parties, which are only made public to a small extent, and some conclusions can be formulated.
First of all, all surveys credit Mihai Chirica with the first chance, only the percentages differ: for PNL the numbers are higher, and for PSD, USR and AUR the gap is narrowing. Marius Bodea (USR) appears as the main counter-candidate in almost all polls, except for those conducted by PSD, where Bogdan Balanișcu (PSD) is credited with a second chance.
Bodea’s problem is that he shares votes with Cosette Chichirău (ex-USR, Romania ECO), and the difference with Chirica is growing rapidly – basically, the two (Bodea and Chichirău) are also disputing their USR votes in the municipality, polls showing a significant advantage for Bodea from this point of view.
Another aspect is that, in his capacity as a former leader of the PSD, Mihai Chirica continues to attract votes from social-democratic sympathizers, and there is (another) hard core among the thousands of employees in the local public administration led by him.
Some of the other candidates for the City Hall have been tested in the polls, but the estimated electoral scores are not likely to threaten the position (whatever it may be) of the four candidates already mentioned.
It is certain that voter turnout can decisively influence the election results. As the analyzes in the field show, a low turnout will always favor the incumbent mayor, while a significantly higher turnout can open the electoral competition to any outcome.
Nine candidates for the City Hall were validated
The municipal electoral office validated, at the end of last week, the candidacies of nine people for the position of mayor. The nine candidates, in the order in which the decisions of the electoral office were issued, are: Mihail Pintilei (PUSL), Bogdan Balanișcu (PSD), Mihai Chirica (PNL), Viorel Blajuț (Iesene Society Party – PSI), Marius Bodea (Right Alliance Unită – ADU), Cosette Chichirău (Romania ECO), Ioan Sebastian Buduroi (LEU – Law Education Unit), Tudor Ciuhodaru (AUR) and Cătălin Abălașei (Pro Romania).
The electoral campaign will start on May 9, and the local elections will be held on June 9, the same day as the European Parliament elections.
Tags: surprises race City Hall history teaches electorate Iasi duels years Ziarul Iasi
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