Millions of people in the US are watching with interest the events unfolding in a courtroom in Manhattan, New York, where the decision of 12 jurors in a trial in which the former president and candidate for a new term in the White House is on trial for falsifying financial documents, can change the destiny of the whole world.
Donald Trump’s trial started two weeks ago and continues with the hearing of witnesses, being far from over.
The Manhattan district attorney has accused the former president of falsifying 34 financial documents to hide a $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels, a porn star, with whom he had an extramarital affair in 2006.
Donald Trump is the first US president to appear before a jury in a criminal trial.
In January, the Republican Party leader was ordered by a judge to pay author E. Jean Carroll $83 million in a civil suit in which he was accused of defamation after a year ago, in a in another case, Trump was found guilty of sexual abuse and defamation against the same plaintiff who accused him of rape.
With all the attention and debate surrounding the conduct of Donald Trump’s trial, surprisingly little attention has been paid to one key element: its possible outcome and, in particular, the prospect of a former and potential future president being sentenced to prison
Norman L. Eisen, New York Times
Donald Trump was also ordered by a judge to pay a $355 million criminal fine following another lawsuit in which the New York state attorney general accused him of repeatedly overvaluing his real estate holdings in order to to mislead financial institutions in order to obtain loans.
The former president appealed, and a judge ruled that until his trial, the former US president should post bond for only half of the amount he owes.
But a guilty verdict by the 12 jurors in the Stormy Daniels trial may mean entering a new reality for Donald Trump.
A US president in prison?
In one of ten similar cases in New York State over time on charges of falsifying financial documents, the perpetrator served prison time.
There is a possibility that, if found guilty, the former president could only receive a criminal fine, suspended prison terms or be forced to stay behind bars for a period between six months and 4 years, according to an article published by the American newspaper “New York Times”.
If the 12 jurors give a guilty verdict, indicating the seriousness of the crime, the judge will determine the punishment.
We are at an unprecedented moment in American politics. The courtroom proceedings overlap with the election campaign. People who hate Trump think he is guilty and say no one is above the law. People who love him believe he should not be charged and that he is being persecuted. These two positions will continue to face off, and those who are now undecided will ultimately decide the winning side.
Matthew Bartlett, Republican Party strategist, The Hill
In the decision, the criminal past, the behavior in the courtroom and outside it during the trial, the social danger represented by the accused and his testimony, if he was heard, will be weighed.
The judge will also take into account whether the convicted person has the ability to comply with the law in the future or whether there is a possibility of a quick relapse.
The Teflon candidate
Donald Trump’s problem is that he has repeatedly violated the judge’s order not to attack and influence witnesses through statements and posts on social networks, being fined $9,000.
If the jury returns a guilty verdict, the judge has between 30 and 60 days to announce the sentence.
The trial will last at least a month, and a verdict, plus the setting of a sentence, could be events that will negatively mark a good part of Donald Trump’s election campaign, an epilogue of the trial may not exist earlier than August of this year.
“If he happens to be convicted, it’s going to take a toll on even someone like Donald Trump, who seems to be the Teflon candidate,” Stephen Saltzburg, a law professor at George Washington University, told The Hill .
The former president was nicknamed the “Teflon candidate” because all the accusations, trials and convictions increased his popularity and political support, instead of putting him in trouble.
Still, 57 percent of Americans say a conviction in the trial would be a serious problem for Trump, according to a YahooNews/YouGov poll.
The same study shows that undecided voters will tend not to support the former president, creating an advantage for Joe Biden in the November election.
