As the Romanian diaspora continues to grow numerically and consolidate its presence outside the country’s borders, its role in determining the outcome of the elections becomes more and more relevant. However, in the context of uncertainty and lack of emotion among Romanian citizens abroad, the exact impact of the diasporic vote in this year’s elections remains unknown.
With approximately 5.7 million Romanians in the diaspora according to official data, their representation at the polls has become a crucial issue for the democratic process in Romania. However, only a small percentage of them go to the polls once every four years in the special wards abroad. Despite all the efforts to organize elections more efficiently outside the borders and with the increase in the number of polling stations, voter turnout in the diaspora remains uncertain and influenced by factors such as the organization of the poll and the degree of community mobilization.
So far, the Romanian diaspora has shown a tendency to vote for right-wing parties, PSD often being disadvantaged by the results obtained outside the country. However, for the next elections, this dynamic seems to change, and the diaspora vote is divided between several political options, including right-wing parties such as PNL and USR, but also new formations such as AUR, which attracts with a “sovereignist” message and nationalist.
Political analysts are reserved about predictions regarding the distribution of the diaspora vote this year. The lack of opinion polls and the lack of emotion specific to previous elections complicates predictions, and uncertainty about the level of voter turnout and the electorate’s choices add an additional layer of complexity.
How many Romanians go out to vote in the diaspora?
In the 2019 presidential election, approximately 944,172 diaspora voters went to the polls in the second round. This one it was the largest voter turnout ever recorded in the diaspora and had a significant impact on the final outcome of the election.
In the 2020 parliamentary elections, approximately 660,000 votes were cast in the diaspora, which was a significant increase from previous elections.
1,000,000 votes can decisively change the fate of the elections
The electorate from the diaspora has therefore, in the past, had a significant impact on the outcome of the presidential elections. As it happened in 2009, when the votes from abroad were decisive in overturning the result in favor of Traian Băsescu. However, in the absence of a well-defined electoral campaign and well-known candidates, interest and mobilization in the diaspora risks being reduced this year.
It is clear that the Romanian diaspora is playing an increasingly important role in the country’s political life, and the way it will cast its vote in this year’s elections will inevitably influence the final result. With so many unknowns in the equation, it is difficult to make accurate predictions, and only time will reveal his true influence in Romania’s democratic process.
Is there a favorite?
At the moment, there is no political party or formation that can be clearly identified as attacking the Diaspora vote most effectively. The political situation in Romania is complex and dynamic, and the parties’ strategies regarding the diaspora vary according to the electoral context and their specific interests.
In the past, right-wing parties such as PNL and USR have tended to benefit more from diaspora votes, while PSD has had difficulty mobilizing supporters outside the country’s borders. However, the emergence of new formations, such as AUR, which focuses its message on nationalist and sovereign themes, has brought changes in the political dynamics. GOLD is bayoneting the less informed areas and unfortunately the diaspora is part of the latter category.
At this time, parties that manage to communicate effectively with the diaspora and offer concrete solutions to its needs and concerns have a better chance of attracting votes. However, the final influence of the diaspora in the electoral process depends on a variety of factors, including the mobilization of Romanian citizens abroad and the ability of the parties to win their trust.
