The Knicks have turned things around after a brutal 3-8 stretch.
They are 8-3 in their last 11 games and now trail Cleveland by a half-game for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Next up for the Knicks is a trip to Toronto to take on a Raptors team that currently has the longest losing streak in the NBA at 11 games.
Toronto will be without three starters (Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley), which explains why the Knicks are laying as many as 13.5 points after opening as a nine-point favorite.
Although I’ve never been a fan of chasing steam, our Action Labs database lists the Knicks as the most profitable road favorite against the spread (9-3-1, 75.1%) when bet up by four or more points.
While I won’t begrudge anyone for laying the points here, I’ve targeted a player prop that could offer better value if we expect this game to be a one-sided affair.
Knicks vs. Raptors odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Knicks -13.5 (-110) | Over 211.5 (-115) | Knicks -1000 |
| Raptors +13.5 (-110) | Under 211.5 (-105) | Raptors +625 |
Knicks analysis
I was very high on the Knicks following their trade market activity. New York acquired OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn in exchange for Barrett, Quickley and a 2024 second-round pick.
Then, after Anunoby (elbow) and Julius Randle (shoulder) went down with injuries, New York included Flynn, Quentin Grimes, Ryan Arcidiacono, Evan Fournier and a pair of future second-round picks in a trade package for Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks from the Detroit Pistons.
Anunoby returned to the lineup for three games, but the inflammation in his elbow kept him out of New York’s last four contests.
It’s worth noting that the Knicks went 3-0 in those games with Anunoby back on the court, and are now 15-2 in the games he plays.
However, Anunoby’s return might have sparked something on this team’s defensive side. They’re 3-1 in the four games he missed, allowing the sixth-fewest points (104.3) during that stretch, per NBA.com.
With the Raptors missing three starters, I’d expect them to struggle to generate points against a Knicks defense that has improved in recent games.
Raptors analysis
It’s been a tough few weeks for the Raptors.
Not only have they had to deal with Barrett’s younger brother’s passing, but now one of their players, Jontay Porter, is the subject of an NBA investigation following an irregular spike in gambling activity surrounding his player props.
Given the gravity of the issues they’re dealing with, I imagine the Raptors’ current situation makes taking the court all the more challenging.
In its recent game against the Nets, Toronto had just one starter, Gary Trent Jr., who averaged double figures (13.6 PPG) in scoring.
That’s not exactly what you’re looking for in terms of competitiveness when betting on an NBA team. The more I think about it, the easier it is to make a case against the Raptors in this spot.
However, double-digit underdogs are one of the more lucrative NBA betting angles. They’ve covered the spread 52.3% of the time for a profit of 68.17 units.
I’m always cautious about laying too many points in the NBA, and Tuesday’s 19-point meltdown by Milwaukee against Los Angeles is another example of why bettors should exercise caution.
Knicks vs. Raptors pick
The play that warrants consideration in this matchup is New York’s Jalen Brunson going over his 3-point field goal prop of 2.5.
Per TeamRankings, Toronto ranks 20th in opponent 3-point field goals (13.3 per game) and 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage (37.5%).
While it’s one thing if your opponents are simply getting hot from the perimeter, it’s another if you’re not putting forward the effort to close them down.
This season, Toronto ranks 15th in contested 3-point shots (16.1), but during this 11-game losing streak, it’s down to 28th (12.4) in the category.
Betting on the NBA?
Brunson is an above-average 3-point shooter. He’s one of 40 players shooting at least 40% from the perimeter.
In three games against the Raptors this season, he made at least three 3-pointers while shooting 46% from behind the arc.
Brunson is one of the most efficient players in the league, with the seventh-highest usage rate (31.5%). Thus, he should garner enough scoring opportunities to exceed this 3-point scoring prop.
