Did Putin order Navalny’s murder? This is what the assessment of the American intelligence agencies shows

US intelligence agencies have determined that Putin likely did not order Navalny to be killed at the prison known for its brutal conditions, people familiar with the matter told the WSJ, a finding that deepens the mystery surrounding the circumstances of his death.

The assessment does not dispute Putin’s guilt for Navalny’s death, but rather notes that he probably did not order it at the time. The finding is widely accepted within the intelligence community and shared by several agencies, including the CIA, the people involved told the WSJ.

Some European intelligence agencies have been briefed on the US point of view. Certain countries remain skeptical that Putin had no direct involvement in Navalny’s death, according to security officials in several European capitals. In a system as tightly controlled as Putin’s Russia, it is doubtful that Navalny could have suffered any harm without the president being informed beforehand, these European officials said.

President Biden and other world leaders found Putin ultimately guilty, based on the Kremlin’s years of targeting Navalny, including allegedly attempting to assassinate him in 2020 and sending him to a “distant gulag.” “Make no mistake. Putin is responsible for Navalny’s death,” Biden said after the world learned of his death.

But the US now believes that the moment of his death was not chosen by Putin.

The assessment is disputed by some parties

Navalny’s allies insist that his death was orchestrated by the Kremlin. In a statement, Leonid Volkov, a longtime ally of Navalny, dismissed the US intelligence community’s assessment as naïve.

Those who say Putin was unaware “clearly don’t understand anything about how Russia works these days,” he said. “The idea that Putin was not informed and did not approve the killing of Navalny is ridiculous.”

Slawomir Dębski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, a Warsaw think tank close to the Polish presidency, questioned the assessment of the US intelligence community. “Navalnyi was a politically valuable prisoner, and everyone knew that Putin was personally invested in his fate. The chances of this kind of accidental death are low,” he said.

The US assessment is based on a range of information, including some classified information, and an analysis of the public facts, including the timing of his death and how it overshadowed Putin’s re-election.