Data released last week by Eurostat showed the area emerged from recession in the first quarter after first-quarter GDP rose 0.2%, following a 0.5% decline in the last three months of last year, which could allow the ECB to operate its first interest rate cut next month.
This development is a positive one for the economies on the periphery of the euro zone, which will allow exports to grow and improve the performance of currencies.
ANALYZE. Radu Georgescu: The National Forecasting Commission anticipates an annual average of 5 lei/euro
The euro rate increased from 4.9758 lei, in Monday’s session, to 4.9764 lei, in Thursday’s session. On Good Friday, transactions on the international markets, the local one being closed, took place in the “classic” 4,974 – 4,977 lei, which took shape since the beginning of last month
The National Forecasting Commission estimates in its spring forecast an average exchange rate for this year of 5 lei/euro, which would rise to 5.06 lei in 2025, respectively 5.12 lei in 2026. Regarding the projection of the dollar exchange rate American, the annual average for 2024 is 4.63 lei, to then increase to 4.68 lei and 4.74 lei, respectively.
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The participants in the survey carried out in March by CFA Romania anticipate for the next 12 months an average value of the euro of 5.0419 lei, respectively one of 4.9961 lei, for September.
On May 13, a new monetary policy meeting of the BNR will be held. Most analysts anticipate maintaining the reference rate at 7%/year, respectively at 6%/year for the deposit facility that commercial banks benefit from.
“Persistent inflation requires the maintenance of reference rates at the maximum level of the last 23 years”
This perspective has caused, since the beginning of April, the three-month ROBOR index, according to which interest is calculated on most loans in lei contracted before May 2019, to stagnate at 6.05%. The six-month index, used to calculate mortgage rates, and the 12-month index ended this month at 6.07%.
Officials of the American Federal Reserve declared on Wednesday, at the end of the monetary policy meeting, that the persistent inflation requires maintaining the reference rates at the maximum level of the last 23 years, of 5.25 – 5.50%, for a longer period than anticipated .
The Fed’s decision depreciated the euro to $1.0652, but on Friday the single currency rose to $1.0812 and closed on US markets at $1.0763.
“The price of a gram of gold fell to 344.1075 lei”
The appreciation came after the release of data on the US labor market, which cooled significantly. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in April from 3.8 percent the previous month, after just 175,000 new jobs were created, down from 315,000 in March. These data restored optimism among investors about the possibility of a decision by the Fed to cut interest rates in September.
On Thursday, the rate of the Swiss franc increased to 5.0964 lei and that of the pound sterling decreased marginally to 5.8180 lei.
In the last session of the week, the price of a gram of gold fell to 344.1075 lei, an effect of the depreciation of the yellow metal to 2,294.10 – 2,321 dollars/ounce, which continued on Friday, when the ounce dropped to 2,276.20 – 2,320, 90 dollars.
The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates on hold and delay the first tapering operation sent bitcoin tumbling more than 5% to $56,957 on Wednesday. On Monday morning, the main cryptocurrency was fluctuating between $63,750 and $64,623 and ethereum was trading in the $3,126-$3,191 range.
The analysis includes the period April 29 – May 6
