Alex Brideau, researcher at the Eurasian Group analyzes the consequences of the attack in Moscow for the Kremlin in an interview with the Spanish publication La Razon, cited by Rador.
Reporter: Has the war in Ukraine distracted the Russian president from his internal security and the fight against terrorism?
Alex Brideau: The invasion of Ukraine is the main objective of the Russian security and military services, and we can see this approach in the political sphere: Putin blames Ukraine and the West, rather than the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K), based in Afghanistan while trying to explain the attack to the Russian public. It is almost certain that security services have been monitoring threats from Islamist extremist groups, given their continued support for the Assad regime in Syria and concerns about security risks emanating from Afghanistan. That being said, the security services may not have been able to stop this attack even if the war had not been going on. Russia has suffered many terrorist attacks since Putin has been in power.
Reporter: Russia has a historically complicated relationship with Islam and the repression of the Muslim minority. Does this make her a target for radicals?
Alex Brideau: One of the likely reasons ISIS-K is targeting Russia is the Russian military’s role in attacking the Islamic State in Syria as part of its support for Assad. More specific historical grievances in Afghanistan, where the group is based, may also be at play, particularly the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s. In the past, the Russian military has attacked the Islamic State in Syria as part of its support for Assad. Russia’s military actions in predominantly Muslim Chechnya since the 2000s have also been the driving force behind some of the biggest terrorist attacks carried out in Russia before last week.
Reporter: The Islamic State in Central Asia, which claimed the attack, is led by a Tajik. Might they also be more inclined to attack Russia (the closest power)?
Alex Brideau: Russia hosts a large number of immigrants from Central Asian countries who work there and send money home. It is unclear whether the treatment of these workers is a major factor in ISIS-K, although many observers have noted that the group may be recruiting people from these communities in Russia. In the wake of the attack, this has created problems for Tajik migrants and migrants from other Central Asian countries who face harassment from Russian security forces.
Reporter: Has the arrival of the Taliban in Afghanistan favored the flourishing of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State in Central Asia?
Alex Brideau: Governments in Central Asia and Russia have been concerned since the Taliban took power about the possibility of extremist groups becoming more active in Afghanistan and across the border in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The Taliban and ISIS-K consider themselves adversaries. So in this case, the concern was more about the Taliban’s ability to control ISIS-K than whether they could support the group.
Reporter: Is Russia more affected by the spread of radicalism because of its geographical proximity? Could a similar attack be repeated?
Alex Brideau: The threat from extremist groups based in Afghanistan worries several of the country’s neighbors, including the Central Asian states of Pakistan, Iran and Russia. There have been other recent attacks that show these groups can attack outside of Afghanistan. Therefore, Russian officials will remain concerned about the possibility of further attacks in the future.
Translation: Rhodesia Costea
Tags: Islamic State targeting Russia role dismantling caliphate Syria
