Today, Vladimir Putin begins a new mandate at the head of Russia, which he has transformed into a monolith of power

Having been in charge of Russia for a quarter of a century, Vladimir Putin will get his hands on a copy of the Constitution on Tuesday and begin a new six-year term as president who exercises extraordinary power, with clear signs of authoritarianism, in the midst of a war of aggression against Ukraine and having relations with the West more tense than ever, including regarding the nuclear threat.

Since becoming acting president on the last day of 1999, Putin has reshaped Russia into a power monolith – crushing political opposition, driving independent journalists out of the country, and fostering a growing devotion to of “traditional values”, marginalizing many people in society, reports The Associated Press, according to News.ro.

His influence is so dominant that other officials could only sit submissively on the sidelines as he launched a war in Ukraine, despite the fact that the invasion was expected to bring international opprobrium and harsh economic sanctions, such as and a high human price for Russia, through the lost lives of its soldiers.

With such a level of power, what Putin will do in his next term is a daunting question both at home and abroad, AP notes.

The Ukrainian front

The war in Ukraine, where Russia is making increasing, though not substantial, gains on the battlefield is the main concern, and Putin shows no signs of changing course.

“The war in Ukraine is at the center of his current political project and I see nothing to suggest that this will change. And that affects everything else,” Brian Taylor, professor at Syracuse University and author of the book “Putinism Code,” said in an interview with The Associated Press.

In his state of the nation address in February, Putin promised to meet Moscow’s goals in Ukraine and do whatever is necessary to “defend the sovereignty and security of” Russian citizens. He stated that the Russian military has “gained tremendous combat experience” and that it “firmly holds the initiative and is conducting offensives in a number of sectors.”

This will come at a huge expense, which could eat into the money available for extensive domestic projects and reforms in education, social assistance and the fight against poverty, which Putin detailed in much of the speech his for two hours. Taylor believes that such projects were included in the speech more for show than to indicate the real intention to implement them.

“Putin thinks of himself in the grand historical terms of the Russian lands, returning Ukraine to where it belongs, he has these kinds of ideas. And I think that they prevail over any kind of socio-economic programs”, says the professor.

Will Putin extend the war to Europe?

If the war does not end in total defeat for either side, with Russia retaining some of the territories it has already captured, European countries fear that Putin could be encouraged into a new military adventure in the Baltic states or Poland .

“It is possible that Putin has vast ambitions and will try to achieve a costly success in Ukraine with another attack elsewhere in the country,” Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine.

“But it’s also quite possible that his ambitions don’t extend beyond what Russia has won — at enormous cost — and that he doesn’t need or want to bet more,” Walt says. In addition, Walt added, “Russia will not be able to launch new wars of aggression when the war in Ukraine finally ends.”

But such a rational concern may not have merit in Putin’s thinking, other analysts believe. Maksim Samorukov, from the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia, considers it likely that Moscow, “led by Putin’s whims and illusions, will commit self-destructive errors.” In an op-ed in Foreign Affairs, Samorukov suggested that Putin’s age could affect his judgment. “At 71, the awareness of his own mortality certainly influences his decision-making. A growing sense of his limited time no doubt contributed to his fateful decision to invade Ukraine,” says the analyst.

How much support does Putin have inside?

On the other hand, Putin may begin his new term with a weaker grip on power than he appears to have. “Russia’s vulnerabilities are hidden in plain sight. Now, more than ever, the Kremlin makes decisions in a personalized and arbitrary way, lacking even basic controls,” wrote Samorukov.

“The Russian political elite has become more flexible in implementing Putin’s orders and more subservient to his paranoid worldview. The regime is constantly at risk of collapsing overnight, as its Soviet predecessor did three decades ago,” he wrote.

To be sure, Putin will continue his animosity towards the West, which he said in his State of the Nation address that he “would like to do to Russia the same thing that they have done to many other regions of the world, including Ukraine: to bring discord to our house, to weaken it from the inside”.

Putin’s resistance to the West is manifested not only in his anger at the support he has given to Ukraine, but also in what he considers to be the undermining of Russia’s moral fiber.

Last year, Russia banned the LGBTQ+ “movement,” declaring it extremist, in what officials said was a fight for traditional values, such as those espoused by the Russian Orthodox Church, in the face of Western influence. Courts have also banned gender transition.

“I would expect the role of the Russian Orthodox Church to continue to be quite visible,” Taylor said. He also noted the explosion of outrage on social media following a party organized by TV presenter Anastasia Ivleeva, where guests were asked to appear “almost naked”.

“Other actors in the system understand that these things resonate with Putin. There were people interested in exploiting such things,” he said.

Although the opposition and independent media have all but disappeared under Putin’s crackdown, there is still potential for new moves to control Russia’s information space, including moving forward with its efforts to establish a “sovereign internet.”

Putin’s inauguration comes two days before Victory Day, Russia’s most important secular holiday, which commemorates the capture of Berlin by the Soviet Red Army in World War II and the immense burden of the war, in which the USSR lost approx. 20 million people. The defeat of Nazi Germany is an integral part of modern Russia’s identity and Putin’s justification of the war in Ukraine as a comparable struggle.