Why Putin Needs Population Mobilization and What’s Next. The Scenario of a Russian Political Scientist Who Worked for the Kremlin Leader

“Putin needs the mobilization of the population to force Ukraine to sit down at the dialogue table. He wants to prove that he is ready for an escalation of the conflict, so that, seeing his determined attitude, the Ukrainians cannot rule out a nuclear attack,” wrote Abbas Gallyamov in a comment published on his Telegram account.

Abbas Gallyamov worked for Vladimir Putin for three years in his first term and described him as a “very rational and unemotional” man.

Gallyamov recalls that last week, in talks he had with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, the Kremlin leader expressed his desire to immediately end the fighting and start negotiations.

Abbas Gallyamov worked for Vladimir Putin for three years

“At the same time, Putin lamented that Ukrainians refuse to talk to him. So they try to convince them that they shouldn’t challenge him”, points out the political scientist.

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“Whenever he finds himself in a difficult situation, Putin raises the stakes. He expects the opponent to be more cautious than he is and to step aside to avoid a collision. Demonstrating his readiness for this confrontation, Putin is bluffing. Nothing new”, analyzes Abbas Gallyamov.

To support his thesis that the Kremlin is no longer focused on war, but on negotiations, Gallyamov also brings up the exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine that took place on Wednesday evening.

“After announcing the mobilization, Putin immediately made a broad gesture towards the enemy. Without giving a second thought to the opinion of the Russian “patriots”, he released the fighters from Azov. The same ones for whose trial a cage was being built not long ago.”

What is the nerve point of the Putin regime

Gallyamov also writes that the most vulnerable point of the Putin regime is its injustice: “Social inequality is constantly increasing. But if before everything seemed to be a matter of money, now it is literally a matter of life and death. The common people will now go to war, and those who send them there will stay at home. This is precisely what must be insisted upon: «OK, if you are so patriotic, then why are you not in the trenches? Why don’t you send your children to the front?”.

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For this reason, the analyst believes that Aleksei Navalnyi’s team has managed a strong blow after showing that people in power and their families are not willing to defend their homeland further from public discourse.

Gallyamov refers to the trap Navalny’s supporters set for the son of Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman. They pretended to call him from the military commissariat to recruit him.

“The stuttering of the child, who answered that he will “solve the problem at another level”, is the clearest possible demonstration of the foundation of inequality on which the Putin regime is built. Navalny’s team has once again demonstrated that it is the undisputed leader of the Russian opposition,” writes the Russian political scientist.

“Big protests will follow”

As for the prospect of large-scale protests in Russia, Gallyamov believes they will exist, but not in the immediate future.

“The truth is that most citizens need time to make a political decision. Only a small fraction of people react instantly. Most of the public has a hard time digesting what they hear on TV. After all, they are used to the fact that something is said on TV, and in reality things are completely different.”

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For most Russians, the mobilization has so far remained a televised abstraction. The reality of what happened will begin to dawn on them only after they receive the summons themselves, after their friends and relatives receive them, after the dead begin to return to the country in coffins.

Abbas Gallyamov, political analyst:

Mobilization of the population, “an outrageous injustice”

Gallyamov also explains the psychological reasons why people have not taken to the streets so far, even though tens of thousands of Russians have lost their lives in Ukraine.

“Those who have already died are perceived by citizens as contract soldiers, that is, people who have made war their profession. That they are killed is, so to speak, an unavoidable cost. It’s unpleasant, but it’s their choice. The prospect of the death of those mobilized is an entirely different matter. It is an outrageous injustice. A man lived, worked peacefully, and suddenly the state took him out of life and sentenced him to death.”

Gallyamov believes that Wednesday night’s protests, when hundreds of Russians were beaten and arrested by law enforcement, are just “a warm-up” and that larger protests are to come.

“The only way to repress them will be through brutality, but this very brutality will also destroy what is left of Putin’s legitimacy. At the moment, the president maintains his base, at least a third of the electorate is loyal to him, but in six months this group will have shrunk by three times, if not even more.”

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