The mistake made by two elite Ukrainian brigades that allowed the Russians to advance in Donetsk

Russian troops have advanced on the eastern front and captured a large part of a village in the Donetsk region after a mistake by Kiev’s elite troops, according to a Ukrainian commander quoted by The Business Insider.

While Kiev awaits the aid promised by the US, the Russians are advancing towards Ceasiv Iar. Ukrainian army chief General Oleksandr Sîrskî said it was likely that President Vladimir Putin had ordered his forces to capture the city in Donetsk region before May 9, when Moscow traditionally celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.

A mistake by Ukrainian troops appears to have allowed Russian forces to advance and capture large parts of a village in Donetsk without resistance.

Error made by Ukrainian troops

Russian troops managed to capture most of Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, after an apparent troop rotation error.

The 47th Mechanized Brigade was to be replaced by the 115th Mechanized Brigade, both considered elite units, along the front line just east of Ocheretyne, a small rural settlement.

But as the 47th Brigade retreated, Russia’s 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked, taking advantage of a gap left by the 115th Mechanized Brigade.

The commander of the 47th Brigade, Mykola Melnyk, a former lawyer famous for losing a leg during last summer’s offensive, wrote on Facebook: “The drastic advance of the Russians became possible because certain units failed simply. I hope they will be retrained as assault troops,” he added.

Allegations ‘not true’

Vadym Chornyy, a spokesman for Brigade 115, told the Financial Times the allegations were “not true”.

“The unit did not abandon its position,” he said.

Melnyk stated that the only reason the Russians were unable to continue their advance was because the 47th Brigade had re-entered the battle.

“The holes were plugged by those who planned to take a break,” he said. “The 47th Brigade is back in action. One more month and it will be a year without rotation”.

Other observers cited by Forbes pointed out that the 115th Mechanized Brigade is under-equipped and all Ukrainian troops are running out of ammunition as they await new supplies from the United States after aid was delayed for six months by Republicans in US Congress.

Ocheretyne attack is part of Russia’s “operational-level objective”

An update on the Ukrainian website Deep State, which tracks changes on the battlefield, showed that Russian forces had captured large parts of the village.

Earlier this week, the Institute for the Study of War wrote that Russian forces appeared to be “aiming to make large-scale penetration into Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka,” but added that its efforts would likely be hampered by future US aid deliveries and western.

ISW stated that the Ocheretyne attack is part of Russia’s “operational-level objective to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region through Pokrovsk”.

Russian forces managed to penetrate and gain a foothold in part of Ocheretyne, Nazar Voloshin, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Khortytsia group of forces, said on Saturday, The Kyiv Independent notes.

Ocheretyne is about 15 kilometers northwest of Avdiivka, a key fortified town captured by Russia in February. Avdiivka remained one of the hottest sectors of the front as Russia continues its offensive operations.

“The part (of Ocheretyne) where the enemy is is under our fire control. All measures are being taken to push the enemy out of there”, declared Voloșin.

“Heavy fighting is ongoing, the situation is under the control of the Ukrainian defense forces,” Voloshin said.

The Ukrainians are fighting to regain the village partially controlled by the Russians

According to the cited source, Russian forces have concentrated four brigades in this direction. Ukrainian defenders are withdrawing their reserves and taking steps to stabilize the situation in the direction of Avdiivka and restore control over Ocheretyne, he added.

Volosyn said on Friday that two-thirds of the village remained under Ukrainian control. He also stated that Russian troops are using chemical weapons in their attempts to storm Ocheretyne.

The Russians are rushing to bring reinforcements to their advance from Ocheretyne, while the situation is desperate for the depleted Ukrainian brigades in the area, Forbes notes.

However, the real risk is that the Ukrainian Strategic Operational Group Tavriya – the command responsible for the forces west of Adviivka – will have no choice but to cut its losses, withdraw a few kilometers to the west and reconsolidate by along a new defensive line running from north to south-west of Ocheretyne.

The Russians, in numerical superiority

This withdrawal could cede tens of square kilometers of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or resign themselves to living under Russian occupation, comments Forbes.

Worse, the withdrawal, if poorly executed, would present an opportunity for the Russians to redouble or triple their attacks, with a chain reaction triggering the collapse of Ukrainian defenses.

The Russians are outnumbered in the area. Only 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers are fighting to repel roughly 10,000 Russian troops, according to an estimate by the Ukrainian think tank the Center for Defense Strategies.