Experts warn: More than half of the world’s population will fall ill with malaria and dengue fever by the end of the century

More than half of the world’s population could be at risk of contracting diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria and dengue fever, by the end of the century, scientists have warned, reports DPA/PA Media on Thursday.

Experts have said that outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases associated with global warming will spread to parts of northern Europe and other regions of the world in the coming decades.

In the UK, figures released by the Health Safety Agency (UKHSA) show that the number of imported malaria cases last year exceeded 2,000 for the first time in over 20 years. Thus, 2,004 cases of malaria were confirmed in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in 2023 following travel abroad, compared to 1,369 in 2022.

The increase in this figure, according to UKHSA, is associated with a resurgence of malaria in many countries and with the resumption of trips abroad after the removal of pandemic restrictions, note the sources cited by Agerpres.

Meanwhile, globally, the number of dengue fever cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) has increased eightfold in the past two decades, from 500,000 in 2000 to over five million in 2019.

In Europe, mosquitoes carrying the dengue virus have invaded 13 states since 2000, with a local spread of the disease observed in France, Italy and Spain in 2023.

The researchers said that, until recently, dengue fever was largely isolated to tropical and subtropical regions because near-freezing temperatures kill the mosquito’s larvae and eggs.

“Global warming associated with a changing climate means that the disease vectors that carry and spread malaria and dengue can find a home in more regions, with outbreaks in areas where people are likely to be immunologically naïve, and public health systems unprepared,” said Rachel Lowe, a professor at the Catalan Institute for Research and Advanced Studies in Spain.

“The stark reality is that longer warm seasons will increase the seasonal window for the spread of mosquito-borne diseases, favoring increasingly frequent outbreaks that are increasingly complex to treat,” she added.

If global warming can be limited to 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the population at risk of malaria and dengue could increase by an additional 2.4 billion by 2100, the researchers said. 1970-1999.

However, scientists estimate that if the current trajectory of carbon emissions and population growth continues, 4.7 billion people could be affected by dengue fever and malaria by the end of the century.

“While climate change seems so difficult to tackle, we can expect to see more cases, and possibly deaths, from diseases such as dengue and malaria in continental Europe. We need to anticipate outbreaks and intervene early to prevent the emergence of diseases”, said Rachel Lowe.

Researchers are currently working on developing ways to predict when and where epidemics may occur by monitoring disease and climate change.

“By analyzing weather patterns, finding mosquito breeding sites with drones and gathering information from local residents and health authorities, we hope to give communities time to prepare and protect themselves. But ultimately, the most effective way to reduce the risk of these diseases spreading to new areas will be to dramatically reduce emissions,” noted Lowe.

These conclusions were presented on the sidelines of the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID Global, previously known as ECCMID), the annual meeting of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID), which will take place between 27-30 April at Barcelona, ​​according to www.eccmid.org.

Editor: Liviu Cojan

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