Europe’s military fate at a crossroads. A Romanian professor from Oxford explains the solutions available to the EU

Political scientist Corneliu Bjola believes that the EU is at a crossroads, between a vindictive power – Russia – and an uncertain ally – the USA. There is only one solution: the EU will have to mobilize in order to be able to ensure its own security and organize a European pole within NATO.

The time for fumbling and compromises is over. Russia is in Ukraine and could break the front, and from that moment there would be no guarantee that Putin would not decide to invade other states as well. Professor at Oxford University, political scientist Corneliu Bjola warns that we are at a critical point and that action is needed for Europe to deter potential Russian aggression.

Starting from the historic speech held by Iulia Navalnaya, who insisted that in relations with Putin, Europe and the civilized world are not interacting with a Western-level politician, but with the head of a criminal organization, a real mafia, Corneliu Bjola calls for action.

In short, he says, Europeans are beginning to realize that the security model they have relied on so far has cracks and may not hold up under the dual pressure of a revanchist and radicalized power (Russia) and an uncertain ally, undermined internally by a political polarization that has already led to a coup attempt.

“There is much to be said for why the Europeans have allowed the situation to deteriorate to this point, but what is important is how they will react and whether they will be able to adapt to the new situation. How quickly and how decisively they act will determine the extent to which Russia remains stuck in Ukraine or extends its influence further into Europe.”claims Bjola.

The expert also says that there are three important elements to analyze in order to understand the perspective of European security. The first concerns the relationship with the US, more precisely whether the Europeans can still count on American support in the future.

“It is clear, for example, that without American military support, Ukraine will encounter serious problems on the battlefield, and the Europeans currently do not have the ability to cover this deficit. Moreover, Trump’s statements encouraging Russia to attack Europe visibly undermine the value of NATO’s Article 5. It is undoubtedly a turning point for Europeans. If for many Europeans Trump represented until 2020 a simple accident that they hoped the Americans would correct, his possible re-election will dismantle this myth.”

Bad news for the EU across the Atlantic

In his opinion, Trump is not an accident, but the expression of serious domestic political convulsions with major implications for European and global security.

“Trying to tame it with increased military investment may help in the short term, but is not necessarily a long-term solution. The Trumpist current is much more indifferent to European security compared to other American administrations (see also the vehement refusal of the MAGA faction in Congress to support Ukraine)”adds the teacher.

In addition, Trump perceives the European Union as an economic competitor that hurts the US economically, not supporting it, points out Corneliu Bjola.

“It is a distorted and false view, as the US has also benefited enormously from the trade it carries out with European states, not to mention the support that the Europeans have given the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. In short, the EU-US relationship after 2025 is likely to be negatively marked by US military disengagement and a new round of trade wars initiated by a Republican administration”he adds.

Corneliu Bjola. PHOTO The truth

The second element is directly related to the first and concerns the possibilities that Europe has to adapt to a possible volatile relationship with the US and a directly hostile one with Russia. An important key in this equation is the military side.

“Without or diluted American support, Europe is forced to transform and add a robust military component to its profile, both conventional and nuclear. The strategic development of the European defense industry, together with the creation of a European Defense Commissioner announced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are steps in the right direction, but not enough. What is also needed is a formidable European military force, and the only feasible option would be a European pole within NATO”develops the teacher.

European pole of power within NATO

Ideally, the EU states should develop a European pole of power within NATO. The option of a European army, separate from NATO, is not feasible.

“Such an initiative would allow the effective use of the existing structure, even in conditions of a passive American presence, and could be activated relatively quickly, unlike the example of establishing a European army, which is fraught with many obstacles. A European pole within NATO would allow a transition to a more sustained European defense effort under the NATO brand, but to work credibly, the terms of use would need to be negotiated, such as the extent to which the US nuclear umbrella would continue to cover Europe and what will be the conditions under which the Europeans will be able to initiate actions in smaller or larger formats, with or without American involvement – see the discussion launched by Macron on sending European troops to Ukraine“, explains Bjola.

In the absence of decisive action to deter Putin’s Russia, the risks are high.

“We do not have clear answers to these questions, but one thing is certain: if Europeans remain passive, as they have been until now, in developing their collective defense capacity, the possibility of war returning to Europe will increase significantly“, points out Bjola.

The need for leadership

The third element is about strategic vision and leadership. “Recalibrating the EU’s relationship with the US and developing the union into a military power cannot happen by itself. Above this is the need for clear direction and the rise of leaders capable of creating the necessary support to translate this vision into action in a short period of time. The EU has proven in its history that it can produce leaders of caliber, starting with Robert Schuman and Jean Monnet who laid the foundations of the union as a European peace project, continuing with Jacques Delors, who transformed the union after the end of the Cold War into what it is now”, Corneliu Bjola believes.

The war in Ukraine is a war of international paradigm shift. The EU can no longer continue only as an economic project. The peace dividend he benefited from after ’89 has run out, warns the Romanian professor:

“In terms of vision, there is a need, in the short term, for clarity and determination to reset the relationship with Russia. The idea still embraced by a part of the European public, including the one in Romania, is that the relationship with Russia could return to the situation before the invasion in January 2022. Such an idea must be denounced without hesitation. Without a radical change of regime and political ideology in Moscow, a return to the situation of January 2022 would allow the gangster regime, to which Yulia Navalnaya was referring, to regroup and attack Europe indefinitely, destabilize it, and exploit it economically .”

A core element of Europe’s strategic vision would be to never again allow Russia to militarily intimidate or aggress a European country. This goal can only be achieved if Europe develops a robust, conventional and nuclear military force that is ready to react and intervene firmly every time its borders are threatened, Professor Bjola points out.

What does the EU have to do?

“In the long term, one element of the vision must include its broader geopolitical profile. The Union is a global economic powerhouse (15% of world GDP, 10 times that of Russia and the equivalent of China). The time has come to decide what kind of power it wants to become: a 19th-century one focused on traditional geopolitics, or a 22nd-century one with a solid technological component, exerting its influence in multiple fields (AI, Quantum, space technology) and project their influence more effectively, constructively and sustainably.”

At the moment, the obvious priority for Europe is to push Russia back and stop meddling in European affairs, is his message.

“In the long term, a European security will have to consider a broader perspective and in which technology becomes part of its DNA as a geopolitical actor. For this, however, leaders are needed. Much of today’s problems are caused by the aging generation dominating world decisions. Putin, Xi, Erdogan, Trump, Netanyahu are all over 70 years old. Macron’s initiative to promote intelligent and competent young people in key positions (prime minister, foreign minister) is a very good idea, which should be actively imitated in Europe, including in Romania, where the current political leadership suffers from mediocrity suffocating”,
concludes Corneliu Bjola.