The imbalance between supply, characterized by a high level of production, a high degree of filling of warehouses and a low price of imported gas, and demand, in free fall, led to the collapse of the average price on the spot market, below the threshold of 100 lei/MWh.
The average spot price of gas traded on the intraday market on Tuesday was 96.2 lei/MWh on Tuesday, and the volumes traded on this market were some 10 times higher than the daily average, of almost 34 GWh, representing 13.6% of current domestic production.
8.8 GWh was sold even at a minimum price of the day of 90 lei/MWh, one fourth below the regulated price of 120 lei/MWh.
The last time a price lower than Monday’s average was recorded on the intraday market was on April 13, 2021, 95.4 lei/MWh.
A high volume of 47 GWh was also traded on the market for the next day, at an average price of 107 lei/MWh.
The evolution of gas prices and volumes traded on the intraday market over the last month
Combined, the gas traded on the 2 spot markets on Tuesday equals a third of current domestic production.
The high volumes traded in conditions of reduced consumption (including CETs that have announced that they no longer supply heating agent) show an abundance of gas in the market, with pressure coming from the supply, proof and price side.
Many suppliers overestimated the volume of gas needed to cover the consumption of their household customers and CETs, purchased at the regulated price.
This is how Romania came out of the winter with half of its warehouses full, as Profit.ro anticipated.
Production, imports, exports, extractions and storage from Monday, April 1
In addition, as reported by Profit.ro, for several days domestic companies have not only stopped extracting anything from the gas stored for the winter, but have already injected significantly more gas into the warehouses, having signed delivery contracts. But the rapid collapse of consumption gives them no other alternatives than selling or storing them.
On Monday, 8.7 million cubic meters of gas were stored and not a single cubic meter of gas was extracted from the storages.
On Monday, Romania imported 4.7 million cubic meters of gas from Bulgaria and exported 2.9 million cubic meters to Hungary and 1.4 million cubic meters to the Republic of Moldova.
Prices fell despite the reduction in domestic production by 0.7 million cubic meters, from 24.7 million cubic meters to 24 million cubic meters.
According to OMV Petrom estimates, gas demand in Romania decreased by 16% in 2022 and by 6% in 2023. In an interview with Profit,ro, CEO Christina Verchere anticipates a stagnation of consumption in 2024.
With relatively steady production, extremely high levels of warehouses coming out of winter, and falling demand, in the absence of external and regimental shocksit is expected that the prices, already reduced for a winter period, will further decrease.
Tags: GRAPHICS price gas free market fell leiMWh time years Record volumes
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