PHOTO The Russians attempted the biggest mechanized attack since October 2023, but it seems to have ended in disaster / What the Institute for the Study of War says

Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a major attack near Avdiivka (Donetsk region) on Saturday, the first battalion-sized Russian mechanized assault since late October 2023, when Moscow’s troops began their campaign to capture Avdiivka, the Institute for the Study of War notes in his last assessment of the war.

On Sunday, a Ukrainian military official reported that Russian forces, including elements of Russia’s 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District – CMD), engaged 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) on Saturday BMP in a large mechanized assault near Tonenke.

Geolocated images released on Sunday showed a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along a road northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka).

The Ukrainian military reported that on Saturday, across the front, enemy forces lost 15 tanks and 20 other armored fighting vehicles.

The Russian mechanized attack appears to have ended in disaster

The Ukrainian military said Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight enemy IFVs during the assault and said the frontal assault failed to break through the Ukrainian line.

This appears to be the first reported instance of elements of the 90th Panzer Division participating in the assaults that followed the Russian capture of Avdiivka.

ISW has previously assessed that elements of the 90th Tank Division, along with other Russian units and formations, likely represent a sizeable operational reserve that the Russian military command can employ to continue and intensify efforts to push west of Avdiivka.

However, elements of the 6th Tank Regiment appear to have failed in their Saturday attack near Tonenke, suggesting that elements of Russia’s uncommitted operational reserve near Avdiivka may be too degraded or unable to generate further Russian advances westward in the short term.

The scale of Saturday’s Russian mechanized assault is significant.

Russian forces have not carried out a mechanized assault of this magnitude since the beginning of Russia’s localized offensive effort to capture Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed nearly 50 Russian tanks and over 100 other armored vehicles on 19-20 October 2023.

What the Institute for the Study of War says

The fact that the Ukrainians were able to defend against the assault on March 30, especially near Avdiivka, where they were forced to quickly retreat to new defensive positions following the loss of the city, is a positive indicator of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against future large-scale Russian assaults and the planned Russian offensive operation for the summer of 2024, ISW points out.

Ukrainian officials, rightly, continue to warn about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against the expected Russian offensive effort in the summer, amid a shortage of ammunition, limited manpower and delayed Western assistance, the source said.

Ukrainian forces may have had to consume a significant amount of military materiel to defend against the Russian assault near Tonenke, underscoring Russia’s ability to launch attacks that force Ukraine to consume exaggerated shares of its already limited reserves of military materials and personnel to defend themselves.

Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to defend itself adeptly against a large-scale Russian assault on a particularly critical part of the front, despite the problems it faces, suggests that Ukrainian forces can achieve significant effects on the battlefield if equipped suitable.

It is possible that those in the Russian command prioritize the Avdiivka area in the Donetsk region. The readiness of the Russian military command to commit a tank battalion to an attack near Avdiivka indicates that this assault was a priority effort.

The Russian command may focus its offensive operation forecast for late spring/summer 2024 on the western Donetsk region, hoping to add to the steady but minor advances of Russian forces in this sector.

Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Russian forces are massing troops along the Kharkiv-Lugansk axis near Bahmut, near Avdiivka and in western Zaporozhye region, but ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely to be able to launch a large-scale concerted offensive operation only in one operational direction at a time due to Russia’s own personnel and planning limitations.