2024 NHL Draft mailbag: Beckett Sennecke’s rise, Tij Iginla vs. Cole Eiserman and more

Earlier this week, I released my May 2024 NHL Draft ranking and first mock draft. And with the draft order taking shape, the OHL and USHL championship series getting started, and the combine now suddenly around the corner, it felt like a good time for a mailbag.

You submitted more than 200 questions. Here, I’ve answered 10 of the biggest and most popular ones. Topics include Beckett Sennecke’s rise, Ivan Demidov vs. Matvei Michkov, Tij Iginla vs. Cole Eiserman, top-10 surprises, Zayne Parekh’s rankings, the draft’s most physical players, the draft’s top offensive defensemen and more.

Notes: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length, and similar questions have been grouped together. If you submitted a question and I didn’t answer it here, I’ll circle back and answer the rest of the submissions in the coming days here.

---

What has made Sennecke a riser in the 2024 NHL Draft class? — Zachary

There seem to be a lot of late risers in this year’s draft, particularly up front (I’m thinking about Iginla and Sennecke). There also seems to be a lot of doubts about other top forward prospects, such as Cayden Lindstrom’s injury fears and small sample size, or Demidov having only played in Russian junior hockey and having next to no international competition sample. Do you think that the amount of great D prospects has made scouts scramble a bit more than usual when it comes to the forwards? — Bernard

It really has happened quickly for Sennecke. In the fall, when I asked NHL scouts and OHL folks about him, his name was usually met with a sigh. Everyone saw the skill and the potential, but as one OHL coach told me, he had a lot of bad habits he needed to break, a tendency to play one-on-one too much, and wavering competitiveness. There were also benchings and off-ice questions. In a survey of a few people early on this season, everyone handicapped him as a late-first. One coach even questioned if he’d take him in the first. As recently as my March 25 draft ranking, I had an OHL GM reach out to me to say, “Sennecke’s character is a concern but he has the frame and puck skills. Where you have him (No. 23 at the time, he’s now No. 16 on my list) I think is fair.”

We’re just a month and a half out from that and there’s no way Sennecke is available outside the top 20 anymore. Some teams are having top-10 conversations about him.

A lot of that has just been about the consistency of his effort level, his competitiveness starting to shine through, and the skill showing up more often because he’s more involved in games and makes better choices in terms of play selection.

I do think a part of it comes back to the essence of Bernard’s question as well, though. With Lindstrom’s injury troubles, general souring on Eiserman throughout the year, questions about Trevor Connelly, and a lot of folks who like but aren’t excited by Konsta Helenius, there has naturally been a tendency to look for other forwards with high enough skill levels to potentially project into top-six playmaking roles. Sennecke and Iginla became the darlings that way with the amount of skill plays they each made this season.

For what it’s worth, though, I don’t think concerns about a lack of pro and international sample for Demidov last very long in conversations about him. Everyone sees the clear individual talent.

Who do you prefer as a prospect, Demidov or Michkov? — Bernard

Heading into this year, my answer was pretty firmly Michkov. And while it still might be, any gap I felt existed has shrunk to near zero if at all. I still think I’m partial to the offensive smarts and tactile game of Michkov, which is backed by a stronger statistical profile even going back to adjust for age. But I’m not sure I’m in the majority on that, as Michkov has some detractors in a way Demidov hasn’t ever really had. Demidov’s the more well-rounded player and his hands and puck skill might even get a higher grade, which is really saying something considering Michkov’s the most talented individual drafted prospect in the sport at the moment.

I think both have first-line, star-level projections, both could be a team’s leading scorer, and both are among the more productive players from a counting stats standpoint throughout the prime of their careers. The case for Demidov is that he’s more of a winning player.

What surprise player will be there outside the top 10 (Matt Boldy, Cole Caufield, etc.)? What surprise player will be picked in the top 10 (Dmitry Simashev, etc.)? – Spencer

As I talked to people from around the league and began to put together my first mock, one trend has emerged based on the draft order and the number of teams that will zero in on the D: There are going to be at least a couple of the high-end forwards available outside. Macklin Celebrini, Demidov and as many as five defensemen are expected to go in the first eight picks. If his health checks out, I’d expect the other player in that group of eight to be Lindstrom. That could mean that all five of Iginla, Eiserman, Helenius, Berkly Catton and Sennecke, the consensus second tier of forwards, could be available from No. 9 onward, and two (or maybe even three) are likely to be taken outside the top 10.

If there’s one player who could shake things up by getting picked in the top 10, it’s probably Sennecke, whose OHL playoffs performance has really dazzled some people and whose OHL championship appearance and potential Memorial Cup appearance will be the last impression many scouts see. If that impression continues to include flashes of his unique skill set, it could linger.

Given Zayne Parehk’s historical regular season production, why isn’t he generally ranked higher in publicly available draft lists? Is there a concern that his game won’t translate to the NHL? – Greg

Parekh is No. 5 on my list, so I’m obviously not in the camp who thinks his game won’t translate — or at least I’m of the mind his proficiencies will so far supersede his deficiencies that he’ll be a star regardless. If I’m playing devil’s advocate, though, there are definite concerns among many that he doesn’t defend at a high enough or hard enough level (a belief that he’s lackadaisical out there at times) and that his lack of physicality and reliance on his stick will prove challenging against NHL forwards. There’s some truth to all of that, but I think he’s a better defender than he gets credit for, his elite offensive abilities will win out, and his loose posture actually works for his makeup when you really zero in on why he plays and sets up the way he does on the ice. I’ve also heard the same things about other Saginaw players in the past, including Pavel Mintyukov who was one of the better rookie D in the NHL this season.

Is there a player near the back of the first round that is risky, but could end up being a top of the lineup player? – Eric

Connelly’s the natural answer here, but he could still go in the front half or the late teens. Emil Hemming could be a second-line scorer if developed properly, but comes with some definite risk. There’s always risk associated with picking a 5-foot-10 winger in the first round, but I think there’s a small chance Teddy Stiga takes off and surprises some people with the NHL career he has. Terik Parascak, maybe, too.

What’s your view of Eiserman and Iginla after the U18s? —Peter

I moved Iginla up a few spots in the six weeks between my end-of-March list and my post-U18s list, but that was going to happen after how he looked in the WHL playoffs so I wouldn’t say his U18s moved the needle for me (he was impactful but not one of the tournament’s stars). I moved Eiserman down a couple of spots between those two lists, but that had more to do with Zeev Buium’s Frozen Four than Eiserman. His U18s were the usual mixed bag. He lit up the bad teams early, faded in a couple more competitive games in the middle and then was better in the last two. I know his game inside-out at this point and have settled on him as a top-10 talent still, even if that’s no longer the consensus.

It’s interesting you lumped them together, though, because teams are doing that too. When teams have their final meetings here in the next few weeks, almost all of the teams in that range are going to debate Eiserman vs. Iginla and settle on the scorer they’ll take if they’re both there and the center and defensemen they prefer are gone. I’ve exchanged many a text in recent months with scouts regarding Eiserman vs. Iginla and it’s pretty split. I’m partial to Eiserman but it’s close enough that it’s a worthwhile debate.

Who are the most physical players in the draft? – Gary

These players come to mind:

1. D Gabriel Eliasson (range: mid-round pick)
2. D Stian Solberg (rank: top 60)
3. D Carter Yakemchuk (rank: top 15)
4. F Michael Brandsegg Nygard (range: top 20)
5. F Yegor Surin (range: top 50)
6. D Artyom Levshunov (range: top four)
7. D Charlie Elick (range: top 50)
8. F Kasper Pikkarainen (range: mid-round pick)

Sacha Boisvert has also really come out of his shell this year.

Do you think Catton and Helenius will stick at C long term? – Liam

Helenius, absolutely. His game is the game of a centerman with his attention to detail, defensive and offensive awareness, work ethic, puck retrieval/lifting talent, etc. Catton, more likely than not I’d argue, too. I know it’s a question that has been asked of Spokane staff by some NHL teams this year, but I think you want him, with his skating, swinging low and getting touches early so that you can really maximize his transition game. Some have concerns about whether his defensive game/habits are quite there considering his size, but he was one of the best penalty killers in the WHL this year and has shown some promise down the middle.

Who are your top five defensemen in terms of offensive potential only? – Mitch

1. Zayn Parekh
2. Zeev Buium
3. Carter Yakemchuk
4. Cole Hutson
5. Artyom Levshunov

(Photo of Beckett Sennecke: Chris Tanouye/Getty Images)